Can Nobody Wants This, Shrinking, or The Studio topple Hacks, The Bear, Abbott, and Only Murders?
Photo-Illustration: Vulture; Photos: AppleTV+, Netflix
We’re two weeks into Gold Rush’s Emmys season, and you’ve probably noticed me throwing around the term “Big Four” a lot. I’m referring to Hacks, The Bear, Abbott Elementary, and Only Murders in the Building — the four veteran shows that have entrenched themselves in the good graces of not only Emmy voters but seemingly all Hollywood awards-giving entities over the last three-ish years. I can’t envision a scenario in which all four aren’t nominated again in July.
In grouping these four shows together, I’m also struck by how they cover the breadth of what Emmy voters have valued in comedy series over the last several decades. Workplace comedies like Cheers and The Office feel represented with the beleaguered optimism of Abbott Elementary. The industry-insider perspective of 30 Rock is reflected in Hacks and Only Murders, while Hacks scratches the Veep itch for acidity. Then there’s The Bear, which feels like the epitome of Emmy voters incorporating more auteurist quasi-dramas into its comedy ranks; you can see shades of everything from Transparent’s moodiness to Atlanta’s formal daring to Ted Lasso’s unabashed romanticism of a job well done.
In trying to determine which four other shows are most likely to land one of eight Outstanding Comedy Series slots, it helps to try to game out the qualities the contenders share with the Big Four and why Emmy voters might similarly go for them.
We covered the case for The Studio in some detail last week, and its virtues remain unchanged. It’s a show that satirizes the bleak realities of the entertainment industry in 2025 while still maintaining the flicker of earnest belief in the value of the Hollywood project, compromised though it is. It’s the only show outside of the Big Four that I see having an outside shot of campaigning its way to an upset victory, unlikely though that may seem. At the very least, a Series nomination is a better-than-decent bet, along with possible acting nominations. Seth Rogen — whose previous Emmy nomination for Pam & Tommy is one of those “if I gave you 100 guesses, you couldn’t come up with it” trivia stumpers — is facing an Actor in a Comedy field with some wide-open spaces after Jeremy Allen White, Martin Short, and Steve Martin get slotted in.
As we said last week, Catherine O’Hara is my bet for the dark-horse candidate who could foil Hannah Einbinder’s long-awaited Emmy win in Supporting Actress. And while I personally think Kathryn Hahn’s performance as the show’s Malcolm Tucker–by–way–of–Jojo Siwa head of marketing is a lot, sometimes Emmy voters like a lot. I’d also keep an eye on Ike Barinholtz in Supporting Actor, considering the only sure entrants in that category are Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear), Paul W. Downs (Hacks), and Harrison Ford (Shrinking), and Barinholtz is doing his whole “kind of a creep, kind of a good guy” thing as well as he ever has.
The real indicators as to whether any of these new comedies are a threat to win the big award will be whether they can get into the Directing or Writing categories, and The Studio is well positioned here. The writing is insider-y, which could appeal to voters in a town undergoing multiple existential crises. The single-take episode “The Oner” and the noir parody “The Missing Reel” are attention-grabby in the way you need to be in order to get heard above the noise, and the more madcap episodes like “The War” and upcoming episodes set at the Golden Globes and CinemaCon can only draw more attention to the high-level directing at work.
Last year, Apple’s Slow Horses finally broke into the drama categories after two years of being largely ignored by Emmy voters. Two years ago, Jason Segel and Jessica Williams were the only two nominees for Shrinking’s debut season, and since that was the year Ted Lasso was campaigning for what we thought was its farewell season, the other Bill Lawrence–Brett Goldstein show necessarily took a back seat. Now, after spending last Emmy season ineligible owing to production delays, Shrinking returns and once again appears to be Apple’s second priority. But The Studio is not Ted Lasso, and Shrinking had a second season to accumulate more fans within the TV Academy.
It helps that Harrison Ford garners a lot of attention on the Supporting Actor ballot. He was nominated earlier this year for the Golden Globe and SAG Awards, and his antics with co-star Jessica Williams during the “I’m an actor” opening bit was one of those ephemeral moments that seems silly but may well have a subliminal effect on voters (Ah, Harrison Ford and Jessica Williams, they’re fun, they belong at award shows, we like them). Speaking of the transitive property of Hollywood success, Ted Lasso turned Bill Lawrence into an Emmy-winning TV creator, which confers a certain amount of carry-over Emmy buzz to his other projects, even if Shrinking feels more like Cougar Town (complimentary!), Lawrence’s previous, Emmy-ignored show.
In an ensemble packed with worthy contenders outside of Segel and Ford, I think Jessica Williams is the show’s MVP, proving capable of quick repartee and emotional depth, often in the same scene. Michael Urie, who was infuriatingly never nominated for his work on Ugly Betty, joins Harrison Ford in Supporting Actor contention; Urie tied with Hannah Einbinder to win the Critics Choice award for supporting performance back in January, and though Ford delivered a heart-obliterating monologue in the season finale, Urie nailed this comedic monologue not once but twice (and nearly a third time) in one of the season’s better running jokes.
Mike Schur is back again with another comedy about good people trying to do good things. This one, amazingly enough, is based on an Oscar-nominated 2020 Chilean documentary in which the filmmaker sends an old man as mole to investigate a retirement home suspected of elder abuse. A Man on the Inside isn’t quite so dark — Ted Danson’s undercover elder is looking into possible thievery — but it does make for a pleasantly funny and heartwarming reteaming of Schur and Danson after The Good Place. As a Schur series, there’s a dedication to bringing every story around to, if not a happy ending, at least one that affirms your faith in the basic goodness of people. And it’s a fantastic showcase for a bunch of older character actors getting something fun to play, including Sally Struthers, John Getz, Margaret Avery, Susan Ruttan, Lori Tan Chinn, Veronica Cartwright, and Stephen McKinley Henderson.
Schur is a curious prospect when it comes to predicting Emmy success. His shows — Parks and Recreation, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Good Place — have always received a modicum of Emmy attention. But given their (and Schur’s) collective footprint on the last decade of television comedy, you’d think they’d have gotten more. Parks and Rec was only nominated for Best Comedy Series twice — that seems like a clerical error. Is there something about Schur’s style of comedy that keeps Emmy voters from fully surrendering to it? The temptation is to call out his shows’ tendencies toward nicecore, but I’m not sure how to square that with the recent Ted Lasso Emmy run. Why is Bill Lawrence’s brand so preferable to Schur’s? I honestly don’t know, but I’ll be interested in comparing A Man on the Inside and Shrinking’s Emmy nominations relative to each other come July.
If Schur and the Emmys have a coldly cordial relationship, Ted Danson and the Emmys are much cozier. He’s a two-time winner (for Cheers) and 18-time nominee, and there are times when A Man on the Inside reminds you to appreciate Ted Danson because he won’t be around forever. He is by far this show’s best chance at a major nomination. (Unfortunately, the gaggle of elderly dynamos don’t really have one shoo-in performance, though I would throw a vote Margaret Avery’s way if I had one.)
The When Rabbi Met Shiksa … rom-com did really well at the year-end awards, pulling in three Golden Globe nominations (Comedy Series, plus acting nods for Adam Brody and Kristen Bell), three Critics Choice nominations (the same categories), and SAG nominations for Brody and Bell. Among the contenders, Nobody Wants This has the best evidence that people who vote for awards really like this show. At the same time, it’s among the more divisive Comedy Series contenders with controversy surrounding whether or not creator Erin Foster’s depiction of Jewish women was antisemitic. But attention is attention (well, unless you’re English Teacher), especially when trying to stand out from dozens of competing shows. Being the new series that aired months ago can often be an Emmys death knell, but those precursor nominations could be a way to lock Nobody Wants This onto voters’ radar.
Speaking of shows that run the risk of being out of sight and out of mind: The final episodes of What We Do in the Shadows aired in December. That leaves Emmy voters the choice to either honor the vampire comedy and its cast of incredible performers one last time, or to move on to fresher fish. After the Emmys bestowed a clean sweep upon Schitt’s Creek for its final season, an impression seemed to set in that the Emmys will only fête a show on its way out the door. That’s not always true! Modern Family and Frasier, the two winningest comedies of all time, saw their Emmy nominations peter out in their final seasons. Friends didn’t win for its last year, despite having won the year before. WWDITS could, unfortunately, turn into an “out of sight, out of mind” situation, which would mean that last year’s surprise Matt Berry nomination will prove to be his last for this show. Sorry to Vulture staffers if this turns out to be true.
If combining Tina Fey and Steve Carell — two of the most Emmy-nominated comedic actors of the last 20 years — feels like Netflix forcing an attempt to snatch a Best Comedy Series trophy that has thus far eluded the streamer, it’s probably just a coincidence. The Four Seasons, which premieres in full on May 1, comes from EPs Fey, Tracy Wigfield (Great News), and Lane Fisher (Never Have I Ever) and is a remake of the 1981 Alan Alda film of the same name. It’s a relationship comedy about three couples who are friends and meet up on four seasonal vacations throughout the year. As mentioned, the pedigree for Fey (45 career Emmy noms and nine wins as an actor, writer, and producer) and Carell (10 nominations) is strong, and they’re joined by the likes of Colman Domingo, who’s coming off two straight Oscar-nominated performances, and Will Forte, who you almost certainly forgot was twice Emmy-nominated for his performance on The Last Man on Earth.
As First Lady Mary McDonnell said when exotic dancer Vivica A. Fox introduced herself as a dancer in Independence Day: Ah, ballet. Amy Sherman-Palladino and Daniel Palladino’s new show about dancers at prestigious New York and Paris ballet companies is attempting to get Emmy voters interested in what has historically not been their bag: Upper West Side performing arts. Remember when the Golden Globes lept at the chance to award Amazon’s Mozart in the Jungle as Best Musical/Comedy in 2016? The Emmys followed that up by giving the show a single Emmy nomination for sound mixing. You have to go back to the early ’80s and Fame to find a show about dancers (fictional ones, anyway) that Emmy voters loved.
Amy Sherman-Palladino herself always felt like an Emmys outsider after all those Gilmore Girls snubs, but she broke through in a major way with The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. That show’s subject matter — girlbossing the bad-old-days of the comedy business — gave Maisel the kind of advantage Étoile just doesn’t enjoy. One point in the new series’ favor is that it stars Luke Kirby, who was singled out for three Guest Actor nominations and one win for Maisel. Maybe voters will jeté at the chance to nominate him. There’s also the fact that the show has already been renewed for a second season, so it might have a better shot next time, when the landscape isn’t quite so crowded.
Emmy voters seem to like Natasha Lyonne more than the shows she headlines. She’s previously been nominated for Lead Actress for both Russian Doll and Poker Face; the former got a Comedy Series nod but ran into the Fleabag buzzsaw, while Poker Face severely underperformed at last year’s Emmys. It’s possible Peacock is content with Poker Face simply being a buzzy critics’ fave and not necessarily an Emmys play, though with its episodic nature and so many starry appearances, I’d expect it to contend in the Guest Actor/Actress categories. Judith Light was nominated last season for playing an elderly anarchist; this year, the guest cast includes Emmy-friendly names like Margo Martindale, Carol Kane, John Mulaney, and Melanie Lynskey, though if I were a betting man, I’d put my chips on recent Oscar nominee Cynthia Erivo.
The Shondaland Netflix experience has been every bit the rollercoaster her title card depicts. Bridgerton started hot and heavy but has since receded to afterthought territory, at least where awards are concerned. Inventing Anna actually overperformed Emmy-wise in 2022, landing Limited Series and Lead Actress nominations. The Residence, an overtly comedic whodunnit set at the White House and starring Uzo Aduba as a (stop me if you’ve heard this one) deeply peculiar detective, isn’t currently being predicted for much Emmy success, but I wonder if Shonda might surprise once again. After all, Aduba is a big Emmy favorite with five nominations and three wins in her career.
The biggest obstacle to The Residence making its way into the Comedy Series race is probably Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, since Emmy voters already have a silly murder-mystery show they like. Despite my feeling that The Residence season one was actually funnier and more engaging than Only Murders season four, Emmy voters tend to stay loyal. And they have proved in the past that ensemble-heavy challengers to the OMITB throne (like Apple’s similarly toned The Afterparty) are not their cup of (poisoned) tea.
A fascinating case study in industry momentum! As of a few months ago, when Marvel announced its refurbished MCU plan for a post–Jonathan Majors future, the company also seemed to be admitting some degree of defeat when it came to Disney+ shows. They scaled back the number of TV commitments and have thus far not included any of the Agatha All Along cast members in their “Doomsday Saga” plans. And yet! We do have a new Daredevil series, as well as the persistent rumor that a “Young Avengers” project will emerge as either a film or TV show, one which would involve Agatha’s Billy Maximoff (Joe Locke) in some way.
What does this mean for Agatha All Along far as awards campaigning goes? Certainly the buzz for Agatha is nowhere near what it was for WandaVision back in 2021. But Agatha’s first season was undoubtedly good, mostly well reviewed, and featured some undeniable performances. A Patti LuPone stand-alone episode? All shows should be so lucky! Given how long ago the season aired and the fact that Marvel buzz is still overall bad, I wouldn’t expect much for Agatha, though its chances would ironically have been better if it wasn’t getting a second season (in some form or another) and could enter as a limited series.
I’m grouping these two together since they’re in the same boat: two critically acclaimed series that basically lost out on the HBO awards-budget allocation lottery, and so the Emmys have studiously ignored them both for their entire runs. I said before that Emmy voters tend not to get sentimental about shows in their final seasons, especially ones they’ve never honored before, so fans of Somebody Somewhere and The Righteous Gemstones should probably not get their hopes up. That said … if Girls5Eva and The Other Two managed swan-song writing nominations last year, then truly, who knows? And what’s the harm in hoping for a few more weeks?
Every year, we Emmys trackers fool ourselves into thinking some network comedy or another is going to push its way into the field. We were right about Abbott Elementary, of course, but how many years have we assumed that it’s Ghosts’ time to shine? NBC’s last nomination in this category was 2020, when The Good Place finally cracked the lineup on its third try. The last time two broadcast network comedies were nominated was 2017 (Modern Family and Black-ish); the last time two different broadcast networks got Comedy Series nods was 2015 (Modern Family and Parks and Rec). There’s good word-of-mouth happening for St. Denis Medical right now, and this is probably a good year to be making the “How about a comedy that’s actually funny?” argument. But Superstore, the last Justin Spitzer sitcom to get great reviews on NBC, toiled in Emmy obscurity forever. It’ll take a major effort from NBC, campaignwise, to put St. Denis in the conversation.
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