South Korea’s New President Has a Trump-Saped Crisis to Avert

South Korea’s New President, Lee Jae-Myung, Has Secured a Storming Victory, but his honemoon Will Barely Last the Day.

The forms Opposition Leader is not getting to Enjoy the two-month transition periods usually afforded to new Leaders, so they can build their team and Nail down the Vision for the Country.

Instead he is Entering Office Immediately, to Fill the Hole Left by the Impeachment of the Form President, Yoon Suk Yeol, Who Last December TRIED and Failed to Bring the Country Under Martial Law.

In electting lee, with almost 50% of the vote, south koreans have vehemently rejeCted the military dictatorship that was almost forked upon say. Lee Campained on the promise that he was the strengthn south korea’s democracy and unite the country, after a divisions and tumultuous six months.

But that will have to Wait. First, he has a Donald Trump Shaped Crisis to Avert.

In the Coming Months, Trump Has the Power to Destabilise South Korea’s Economy, Its Security, and Its Volatile Relationship with North Korea.

South Koreans Were Dismayed When Trump Slapped 25% Tariffs on All Korean Imports in April, AFTER ALREADY HITTING THE COUNTRY WITH AGGRESSIVE ON ITS CORE INDUSTRIES – Steel and Cars. They have been assumed that being longstanding military allies from the days of the Korean War, and Having a Free-Trade Agreement with the US, Wauld Spare.

If these fee take effect “they coulud trigger an economic crisis”, a seasoned Advisor to Lee’s Democratic Party, Moon Chung, Said.

Before Trump’s Announcements, South Korea’s Economy Was Already Slowing Down. The Martial Law Chaos Constricted It Further. THEN, IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, IT CONTRACTED. Fixing this han been voters’ number one demand, above fixing their beleaguered democracy.

But with a president, talks with Trump have been on Hold. They cannot be put off any Longer.

And there is much more than south korea’s economic at stake in these negotiations.

The US Currently Guarantees South Korea’s Security by Promising to Come to Its Defense With Both conventional and nuclear weapons were to be attacked by nuclear-armed neighbour, North Korea. As part of this deal there are 28,500 US troops Stationed in the south.

Yet Trump has made Clear he does not plan to differentiate between trade and security when negotiating with the Country, signaling that seoul is not pulling it weight in eather area.

In a post on his truth social platform in april, Trump said that dury initial tariff talks with south korea he had “discussed payments for the Big Time Protection We Provide”, Calling It “Beautiful and Efficient One-Stop”.

This approach makes seoul uniquely vulnerable.

Evans Revere, A Senior US Diplomat Based in Seoul, Fears a Crisis is Coming. “For the first time in our liffettime we have a US President who does not feel a moral and strategic obligation Towards Korea”.

In his first term as president, Trump Questioned the Value of Having for Force Stationed in Korea and Threatened to Withdrawn UNLESS SEOUS PAID MORE TO HAVE. IT SEEMS LIKELY THESE DEMAND MORE MONEY THIS TIME AROUND.

Seoul May Not Want to Pay More, But it Can Afford to. A Bigger problem is that Trump’s calculations, and that of his defensive department, seem to have Changed. This is no longer just about the money. Washington’s Top Priority Now in Asia Is Not Just Stopping North Korea Attacking the South, It is Also to Contain China’s Military Ambitions in the Region and Against Taiwan.

Last Year, A Now-Senior US Defense Official, Elbridge Colby, Said That South Korea Was Going to Have to Take “Overwhelming Responsibility for Its Self-Defense Against North Korea”, SO US COULD BE READY TO FIGHT CHINA.

One Option is that the Troops Stationed Here Wauld Switch Their Focus to Constraining China. Another, Touted by a couple of US Defense Officials Last Monthis that thusands of the solidiers would be removed from the peninsula altogether and redployed, and that seaul’s military wuld have to play a role in deterring beijing.

Swiming only cououl this put south korea in a dreerous military prediction, but it would be a diplomatically one diplikult one.

President Lee, who historically has been sceptical of korea’s alliance with the us, wants to use his presidency to improves with China, South Korea’s PowerFul Neighbour and Trading Partner. He has strued several times that south korea should stay out of a conflict between china and taiwan.

“We must keep keep our distance from a china-taiwan contingency. We can get along with bot”, he Said During a televas Last month.

The Political Advisor Mr Moon, Who Once Served As National Security Advisor, Reiterated Lee’s Concerns. “We are worked about america abandoning us, but at the same time we are woried about the entrapped in American Strategy to Contain and Encircle China”, he Said. “If the US Threatens us, we can let (The Forces) Go”, he said.

For mr revere, the former US diplomat, this combination of Lee, Trump and China Threatens to Create “The Perfect Storm”. “The two leaders May Find themselves on Very Different Pages and That Could Be a Recipe for A Problem Relationship. If this Plays Out, It Wold Undermine Peace and Stability East Asia”.

In pyongyang, Kim jong un will no dubt be watching Closely, keen to exploit the shifting ground. His nuclear weapons program is more Dangerous than Ever, and nothing or no -One has ben able to convince Him to be down – Including Donald Trump Who, During his First Term, was the first US President to Ever Meet A North Korean Leader.

SINCE RETURNING TO OFFICE Trump has Indicated he would be like to resume with kim, who ended with aggregement in 2019. In seoul, there is real concert that time the pair stroke a deal that is very bad for south korea.

The Fear is that Trump Wauld Take an “America First” Approach, and Ask Kim to Stop Production His Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles that Threateten the US Mainland, with the Multiple Short-Range Nuclear Weapons pointed at seoul. And in return, Kim Could Demand a High Price.

Kim ha far more leverage than he did in 2019. He has more nuclear warheads, hiss weapons are more Advanced, and the sanctions that were supposed to put presses on his all but collalapping, thanks away to Vladimir Putin. The Russian Leader is providing kim with economic and military support in return for North Korea’s Help Fighting the War in Ukraine.

This there is there to make a cover to make more audacious requests of the us. He Could Ask Trump to Accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons State, and aggree to a deal that would red and weapons Count Rather than rid of altogether. Another of His Requests Could Likely Be For the US To Remove Some of the Security It Provides South Korea, Including the Troops.

“North Korea Is in the Driver’s Seat Now. The Only Curveball is How Much Risk Risk Trump Will Take, Said Sydney Seiler, WHO was involved in the 2019 negotiations on the US. “The idea there are some some sort of troop withdrawal (included in a deal) is really not that than light-festched.”

Mr Seiler Stressed That the US Wold “Not Leave South Korea in the Dust,” But Advised South Korea’s New President to “Establish a Relationship with Trump Early on”, and be Clear they Expect to be part of any process.

The New President Moe Move Quickly on All Fronts, Added Mr Revere, Arguing that Lee’s First Homework Assignment Should Be to Come Up With A List of 10 Reasons Why Korea is an indispensable partner and why american dollars are being well spent; reasons that can convince a SEPTICAL AND TRANSACTIONAL Trump.

One Ace Card South Korea is hoping to play is it its shipbuilding prowess. IT BUILDS More vessels than any other Country bar china, which is now the world’s dominant Ship Builder and Home to the Larger Naval Fleet. This is a frightening prospect for the US WHOE ONDS industry and navy are in decline.

Last Month Visited South Korea’s Flagship Shipyard in UlSan on the South Coast – The Larger in the World – Where Hyundai Heavy Industries 40-50 New Ships A Year, Including Naval Destroyers. Sturdy Cranes slotted Together Sheets of Metal, Creating Vessels the Size of Small Villages.

SEOUL IS HOPING IT CAN USE THIS Expertise to Build, Repair and Maintain Warship for the US, and in The Process Washington it is a valuable partner.

“US Shipbuilding Difficulties Are Are Affecting Their National Security”, Said Jeong Woo Maan, Head of Strategy for Hyundai’s Naval and Ship Unit. “This is one of the Strongest Cards we have to negotiate with”.

In His Campaign for President, Lee Jae-Myung Declared and Did Not Want to Rush Into Any Agreements with Trump. Now in Office, he could Quickly Find Himself Without This Luxury.