Who Will Win the 2025 Tony Awards

After a thrillingly packed Broadway season and an awards campaign that has involved more petitions than I ever expected, the Tonys are coming up on Sunday night. There’s a lot to unpack this year with the incursion of Hollywood stars and franchises onto the Great White Way alongside the rise of some local theater darlings. There are races with obvious favorites as well as races in which the consensus is so fragile it could be tousled by a gust of wind. Which is to say, as always, that all our predictions are 100 percent accurate and you should bet all your money on our advice; then you can go invest it in a musical, famously also a guaranteed way to make money.

Best Musical
Buena Vista Social Club
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical

It has been a really good year for new musicals! I can pretty much imagine any of these shows beating the crop from last year (sorry, sad wet hunks of The Outsiders). But at this point, the race favors Maybe Happy Ending. While Dead Outlaw is a critics’ favorite — I love its dusty wit — I know more than a few people who (wrongly) found it hard to connect with. Death Becomes Her has the industrial support of its producer Universal, solid sales, and all those TikToks based on its line deliveries, but it’s likely a little down-the-middle to edge in. Maybe Happy Ending has the praise, the Cinderella box-office story, and the emotional sentiment baked into its robot love story to make voters connect with it.

Best Play
English
The Hills of California
John Proctor Is the Villain
Oh, Mary!
Purpose

I’ve found it fascinating to watch Oh, Mary! — a box-office hit that has dominated conversations in New York and been a Tony front-runner for a whole season — do sort of an underdog campaign for Best Play. A deranged queer comedy is not your typical winner, but there’s a lot of Mary enthusiasm and, considering Betty Gilpin’s and Tituss Burgess’s runs as Mary, proof that the show can go on with or without its creator, Cole Escola (imagine the stars of all genders who could actress out in it on tour). But there’s a case to be made that Branden Jacobs-Jenkins’s family drama Purpose, which has picked up steam after a Pulitzer win, is more meat-and-potatoes Tony fare. There’s maybe an outside chance for the finely honed John Proctor Is the Villain, about teenage girls in Georgia confronting The Crucible. But Oh, Mary! somehow seems like the safe choice.

Best Revival of a Musical
Floyd Collins
Gypsy
Pirates! The Penzance Musical
Sunset Blvd.

Jamie Lloyd’s Sunset revival cut out the original’s vowels, the sets, and a lot of the costumes from Andrew Lloyd Webber’s lumbering musical, then added a bunch of screens and a ferocious Nicole Scherzinger. His amendments aren’t universally loved but they’re striking, and with a revival, it’s often about how much you can see the work done on evolving the original piece. Enough was done here to make it a likely winner. The show’s main rival is Gypsy, though its director, George C. Wolfe, wasn’t nominated for his work on the musical, which may indicate voters are cooler on it as a whole.

Best Revival of a Play
Eureka Day
Romeo + Juliet
Thornton Wilder’s Our Town
Yellow Face

The front-runner here is the most recent: Jonathan Spector’s dark comedy about a progressive California school debating its vaccination policies had an Off Broadway production in 2019, which means Manhattan Theatre Club’s version this spring qualifies as a revival. The play was well received, and voting for it gives the Tonys a chance to make a political statement, especially considering RFK Jr.’s appointment as HHS secretary. The other revivals don’t quite have that grip, though Yellow Face was excellent, and Romeo + Juliet has staged a rather bitchy campaign involving the dictionary definition of revival.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Darren Criss — Maybe Happy Ending
Andrew Durand — Dead Outlaw
Tom Francis — Sunset Blvd.
Jonathan Groff — Just in Time
James Monroe Iglehart — A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical
Jeremy Jordan — Floyd Collins

There are six nominees in this category instead of the typical five thanks to an arcane rule about ties in the nomination voting process, but that’s just the beginning of the goofiness: Tom Francis’s campaign has involved getting into soda reviews, Andrew Durand stood in a coffin in random places in New York, and Darren Criss has emphasized the physical transformation of playing a robot. Meanwhile, Jonathan Groff is on The Tonight Show talking about getting into leather. So while Criss has a decent shot — and I wish Jeremy Jordan had gotten more attention for singing Collins’s gorgeous score — Groff has the momentum. Even though he won last year for Merrily We Roll Along, his whole show hangs on his personal fascination with mid-century crooner Bobby Darin, and somehow it’s both compelling and a hit.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Megan Hilty — Death Becomes Her
Audra McDonald — Gypsy
Jasmine Amy Rogers — Boop! The Musical
Nicole Scherzinger — Sunset Blvd.
Jennifer Simard — Death Becomes Her

Everyone’s favorite category is even more of a nail-biter than usual! Ever since Sunset and Gypsy were announced for the same season, we’ve been speculating about the race between Nicole (who won the Olivier in London) and Audra (who is six-time Tony winner Audra McDonald), and the race between them has fluctuated all season (remember the business about Russell Brand and the red hat?). Right now, momentum may be breaking toward McDonald. She just picked up a Drama Desk Award, and getting a broadside from Patti LuPone has given the community a reason to rally behind her.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
George Clooney — Good Night, and Good Luck
Cole Escola — Oh, Mary!
Jon Michael Hill — Purpose
Daniel Dae Kim — Yellow Face
Harry Lennix — Purpose
Louis McCartney — Stranger Things, The First Shadow

Sure, George Clooney, you can sell 3 million bucks worth of tickets to a Broadway show in a week, but can you pull off a madcap medley in a billowing black dress? Cole Escola’s a hometown hero who has been hard at work downtown for years and is finally getting deserved adulation. I believe and hope they’ll win.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Laura Donnelly — The Hills of California
Mia Farrow — The Roommate
LaTanya Richardson Jackson — Purpose
Sadie Sink — John Proctor Is the Villain
Sarah Snook — The Picture of Dorian Gray

Sarah Snook’s performance in Dorian Gray shows the work in a way awards-show voters love to reward: She plays every character, and with the help of a dedicated film crew, performs to recorded versions of herself. Nobody else nominated gets that much business to do onstage, though Laura Donnelly’s double act as mother and daughter in a part tailor-made for her was impressive, Sadie Sink made a striking TV-to-theater turn, and it’s great to see how much fun Mia Farrow is having on the campaign trail.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas — SMASH
Jeb Brown — Dead Outlaw
Danny Burstein — Gypsy
Jak Malone — Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical
Taylor Trensch — Floyd Collins

Jak Malone has become the focal point of the campaign for Mincemeat, a British comedy about a wild bit of World War II history. The show dominated the West End but has gotten a cooler reception here (Americans like to turn up their noses at humor from across the pond), though Malone delivers its standout number in the first act from the perspective of a stoic secretary, which feels like something voters will reward. Still, keep an eye out for Danny Burstein, who has won before and is as menschy as ever in Gypsy.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Natalie Venetia Belcon — Buena Vista Social Club
Julia Knitel — Dead Outlaw
Gracie Lawrence — Just in Time
Justina Machado — Real Women Have Curves: The Musical
Joy Woods — Gypsy

Buena Vista is another show that popped up in a lot of categories but seems most likely to make headway for a featured performance. The musical based on the Cuban supergroup is getting a special Tony for its band, and it feels as though voters will also want to reward Natalie Venetia Belcon, who is imperial and striking as a diva who weathered the revolution and is pulled back into the recording studio (my God, her caftans!).

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Glenn Davis — Purpose
Gabriel Ebert — John Proctor Is the Villain
Francis Jue — Yellow Face
Bob Odenkirk — Glengarry Glen Ross
Conrad Ricamora — Oh, Mary!

If we’re betting on Mary elsewhere, some of that shine must apply to her serious, very repressed husband, played by Conrad Ricamora, a Broadway vet who almost convinces you the show is a gay breakup drama. There’s also enthusiasm for Francis Jue, incredible as a version of Yellow Face playwright David Henry Hwang’s father (a part he has played before!). There’s also Glenn Davis, who multitasks by being in Purpose and co–artistic directing Steppenwolf, and Bob Odenkirk, though his production of Glengarry was shafted elsewhere.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Tala Ashe — English
Jessica Hecht — Eureka Day
Marjan Neshat — English
Fina Strazza — John Proctor Is the Villain
Kara Young — Purpose

How does Jessica Hecht not have a Tony? A stage regular with two previous nominations, she may finally get one for playing Eureka Day’s crunchy-granola vaccine skeptic of a mother. But maybe I’ll regret betting against Kara Young, who plays an interloper in the family drama of Purpose and, after winning for Purlie last year, continues a streak of four Featured Actress nominations in a row.

Best Direction of a Musical
Saheem Ali — Buena Vista Social Club
Michael Arden — Maybe Happy Ending
David Cromer — Dead Outlaw
Christopher Gattelli — Death Becomes Her
Jamie Lloyd — Sunset Blvd.

It gets fun when the Revival and New Musical categories combine. Voters have to measure their enthusiasm for new work against their appreciation for what was renovated in older work. Or, simply: Do people like the screens in Maybe Happy Ending or Sunset Blvd. more? I’m guessing they go for Jamie Lloyd, who has become a marquee name with a distinctive-tats and star-forward approach (he’s doing a Bill & Ted Waiting for Godot next) and hasn’t yet won a Tony. But there could be more than enough love for Michael Arden, who has championed Maybe Happy and quickly become a Broadway regular (he’s got two shows next season), even if he recently won for Parade.

Best Direction of a Play
Knud Adams — English
Sam Mendes — The Hills of California
Sam Pinkleton — Oh, Mary!
Danya Taymor — John Proctor Is the Villain
Kip Williams — The Picture of Dorian Gray

Are we just putting all our chips on Oh, Mary!? I guess so. Phylicia Rashad, who directed its Best Play rival Purpose, wasn’t nominated in the Director category. Kip Williams’s work on Dorian Gray is striking, though it has its detractors — people love Sarah Snook but have mixed feelings about Williams’s social-media-infused take on Wilde. Danya Taymor, an expert in dramas about high-school drama, just won last year for The Outsiders, and Sam Mendes’s and Knud Adams’s shows have already closed. Oh, Mary!’s outrageous farce runs with incredible precision, and that’s all Sam Pinkleton.

Best Book of a Musical
Buena Vista Social Club — Marco Ramirez
Dead Outlaw — Itamar Moses
Death Becomes Her — Marco Pennette
Maybe Happy Ending — Will Aronson and Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical — David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts

It’s hard to tell if we’re in a year like 2017, when The Band’s Visit won basically everything, or a year like the last one, when voters went for more variety. (Then Suffs won for its book and score, while The Outsiders got the big prize). My feeling is this category and the one below will split. Maybe Happy Ending’s jewel-box construction will put it over the edge here …

Best Original Score
Dead Outlaw — David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna
Death Becomes Her — Julia Mattison and Noel Carey
Maybe Happy Ending — Will Aronson and Hue Park
Operation Mincemeat: A New Musical — David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson, and Zoë Roberts
Real Women Have Curves: The Musical — Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez

… But Dead Outlaw’s garage-band rock may give it an edge as a score. (Never bet against David Yazbek.) My perspective is, yes, informed by listening on repeat to Thom Sesma’s hilarious solo from the perspective of a crooning coroner. And to do due diligence, maybe Tony voters have been inundated by so many clips of Death Becomes Her songs online they will be subliminally made to vote for it — but unlike me, I think they are blissfully unaware of TikTok.

Best Orchestrations
Just in Time — Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber
Maybe Happy Ending — Will Aronson
Floyd Collins — Bruce Coughlin
Buena Vista Social Club — Marco Paguia
Sunset Blvd. — David Cullen and Andrew Lloyd Webber

Okay, first of all, justice for the un-nominated Dead Outlaw orchestration. And second, what a wild group: Bobby Darin arrangements up against Collins’s bluegrass up against Maybe Happy Ending’s lovely chamber jazz up against Sir ALW’s face-lift on his own work. After a lot of listening, those MHE jazz arrangements stand out to me (such distinctive melodies in the strings!), but I could see enthusiasm for the neo-gothic Sunset or this being a place where voters want to further endorse the music of Buena Vista.

Best Choreography
SMASH — Joshua Bergasse
Gypsy — Camille A. Brown
Death Becomes Her — Christopher Gattelli
Boop! The Musical — Jerry Mitchell
Buena Vista Social Club — Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck

Buena Vista may get another down-ballot win here given that Justin Peck is such a name as a choreographer (though known for ballet, he has won two Tonys already for Carousel and Illinoise) and there’s a fun narrative in his working with his wife. But hey, the kerfuffle over Boop! not getting a slot to perform on live TV may mean the Tony could go to Boop!

Best Scenic Design in a Musical
Swept Away — Rachel Hauck
Maybe Happy Ending — Dane Laffrey and George Reeve
Buena Vista Social Club — Arnulfo Maldonado
Death Becomes Her — Derek McLane
Just in Time — Derek McLane

In Seoul, where the musical originated, Maybe Happy Ending was performed in a far more minimal way than its American incarnation, which incorporates elaborate design elements to bring two robots (and one beloved potted plant) to life. That feels eye-catching enough to bring it a win here, though voters might also have been dazzled by Swept Away’s coupe de shipwreck or Death Becomes Her’s tumble-ready staircase.

Best Costume Design in a Musical
Buena Vista Social Club — Dede Ayite
Boop! The Musical — Gregg Barnes
Maybe Happy Ending — Clint Ramos
Death Becomes Her — Paul Tazewell
Just in Time — Catherine Zuber

Paul Tazewell, who just won an Oscar for costume design on the film adaptation of Wicked, is primed to get another Tony (after a win for design for Hamilton) for those striking Death Becomes Her gowns that mimic the characters’ injuries. But I do love the lightly futuristic yet cozy aesthetics of Clint Ramos’s robotwear in Maybe Happy, which could continue a streak here, and voters may have Gregg Barnes’s half brightly colored and half black-and-white designs for Boop!’s Act Two opener seared into their retinas.

Best Lighting Design in a Musical
Sunset Blvd. — Jack Knowles
Buena Vista Social Club — Tyler Micoleau
Floyd Collins — Scott Zielinski and Ruey Horng Sun
Maybe Happy Ending — Ben Stanton
Death Becomes Her — Justin Townsend

In craft categories, there’s an incentive to vote for what you remember, and voters may just have a strong sense memory of being “out there in the dark” of Jack Knowles’s work on Sunset. They could also remember the trickery of the illusions in Death Becomes Her or the darkness of Floyd’s cave or just continue along with love for Maybe Happy Ending (there’s a scene with fireflies that’s lit gorgeously).

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Buena Vista Social Club — Jonathan Deans
Sunset Blvd. — Adam Fisher
Just in Time — Peter Hylenski
Maybe Happy Ending — Peter Hylenski
Floyd Collins — Dan Moses Schreier

Sunset’s much-discussed Act Two opener sends Tom Francis tromping down the street, performing in sync with the orchestra. That’s the kind of attention grabber voters remember, even if I’ve heard some carping about the concert-level speaker-blowout design of Sunset. The rest all do sound impressively crisp, and if the love for the Buena Vista band really is stronger, that could be a spoiler.

Best Scenic Design in a Play
English — Marsha Ginsberg
The Hills of California — Rob Howell
The Picture of Dorian Gray — Marg Horwell and David Bergman
Stranger Things: The First Shadow — Miriam Buether and 59 Productions
Good Night, and Good Luck — Scott Pask

I would personally like to announce that I thought the Stranger Things scares were neither good nor spooky, but yeah, there are a lot and they pretty much occupy the show’s entire focus. Stranger Things is already getting a special citation for its illusions and technical effects, but that wouldn’t stop voters from expressing further enthusiasm for the designs here. If not, there’s the screenwork of Dorian Gray or the old-fashioned “Let’s actually construct a whole space” designs of Good Night, and Good Luck and Hills of California.

Best Costume Design in a Play
Good Night, and Good Luck — Brenda Abbandandolo
The Picture of Dorian Gray — Marg Horwell
The Hills of California — Rob Howell
Oh, Mary! — Holly Pierson
Stranger Things: The First Shadow — Brigitte Reiffenstuel

That hoopskirt is pretty much an above-the-title star, and don’t get me started on the Chaperone’s elaborate costumes. Unconventional as Oh, Mary! is as a Tony favorite, I see no reason for the love not to continue here — though, sure, Dorian supplies Sarah Snook with many personae via costume, Good Night evokes the ’60s via precision suiting, and I guess a Demogorgon suit is a costume?

Best Lighting Design in a Play
The Hills of California — Natasha Chivers
Stranger Things: The First Shadow — Jon Clark
Good Night, and Good Luck — Heather Gilbert and David Bengali
John Proctor Is the Villain — Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski
The Picture of Dorian Gray — Nick Schlieper

Ooo ooohhh, the demon’s gonna get ya. (But maybe we can show love for the way the Proctor lighting captures the tempestuous inner lives of those girls?)

Best Sound Design of a Play
Stranger Things: The First Shadow — Paul Arditti
John Proctor Is the Villain — Palmer Hefferan
Good Night, and Good Luck — Daniel Kluger
The Hills of California — Nick Powell
The Picture of Dorian Gray — Clemence Williams

Ooo ooohhh — once again — the demon’s gonna get ya. (But maybe we can show love for the way the Proctor sound design incorporates pop music?)