SEC football Week 10 predictions: Texas, Oklahoma could be eliminated from CFP race

Doesn’t matter what juiced up name we give it, it’s all the same. November games to remember, or the homestretch of elimination games.

Translation: College Football Playoff hopes are about to end in the SEC. Quickly.

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With one month remaining in the regular season, every game matters — and as important, every game affects CFP seeding. It should come as no surprise then that the one conference that could have as many as five teams advance to the 12-team CFP, is in the middle of eating its own.

South Carolina nearly did it last week to Alabama, while Texas A&M emphatically ended LSU’s season — and coach Brian Kelly and athletic director Scott Woodward’s tenures in Baton Rouge.

A parting gift from the Aggies, who are still paying off the $77 million go away gift to former coach Jimbo Fisher — who Woodward hired long ago as the Texas A&M AD.

Strangely poetic? Yep. Surprising? Not in the least.

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Which is sort of like every week in the SEC. Hands and feet in the car, kids. It’s going to get worse before the path to the CFP becomes clearer.

On to this week’s picks, and remember, the team in bold is the selection against the spread, not necessarily the winner.   

Vanderbilt (+3.5) at Texas: Longhorns QB Arch Manning is questionable to play, and is still in concussion protocol. I’m not exactly sure what that means for the Texas offense, which hasn’t been good all season against Power conference teams with Manning.

Backup Matthew Caldwell is next in line if Manning can’t go, and he last week threw the game-winning touchdown pass in overtime against Mississippi State. But there’s a big difference between Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, which is poised to do the unthinkable with a big November.

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College football Week 10 picks: Predictions for SEC showdowns and every Top 25 game

Gig ‘Em: Jimbo Fisher’s $77 million buyout was money well spent for Texas A&M. Just look

Vanderbilt’s confidence is pegged, and it has enough talent on both sides of the ball to roll into Austin and get the biggest win in school history. Not because it means beating Texas, but because it could be the final obstacle to — I can’t believe I’m writing this — reaching the CFP.

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Georgia (-7.5) vs. Florida: This can go one of two ways for a talented Florida roster: interim coach Billy Gonzales has unleashed an offense once shackled by former coach Billy Napier’s phone booth scheme, or the same group of talented players has checked out and are either looking at the NFL, the transfer portal or trying to stay healthy.

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Georgia has spent two weeks fixing what’s ailing a defense that has problems with multiple offenses, and hasn’t covered well in the secondary since 2023. The pass rush is a mess (eight sacks, last in the SEC), and Georgia has only forced six turnovers.

As odd as it sounds, first-year starting QB Gunner Stockton has already bailed out the Dawgs in three SEC games (Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss). Don’t be shocked when it happens again. If it doesn’t, Georgia will have lost all wiggle room in its quest to reach the CFP.

Mississippi State (+4.5) at Arkansas: I’m not sure which team has had worse luck this fall.

Arkansas has lost four one-possession games, including a 45-42 loss to No. 3 Texas A&M two weeks ago. The Hogs have lost three in a row under interim coach Bob Petrino, whose chances at securing the full-time job ended with last week’s ugly home loss to Auburn.

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Mississippi State is winless in the SEC, but blew a 17-point lead last week in a loss to Texas, blew the Florida game with a late interception when it should’ve been running the ball and playing for a game-winning field goal, and blew an overtime loss to Tennessee that never should’ve reached that point — but did so after the Vols scored two defensive touchdowns.

South Carolina (+12.5) at Ole Miss: This game should scare the bejeezus out of Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin.

The last week has been all about another school (LSU) in the Kiffin sweepstakes, more heaps of praise for a team that in the past hasn’t handled it well, and that South Carolina ― once a preseason pick for the CFP ― arrives as a beaten down program.

You can see where this is headed for the Gamecocks, who haven’t played a complete game all season and should’ve beaten Alabama. South Carolina puts it all together Saturday in Oxford against a team that can’t see it coming.

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The problem for Ole Miss is there’s only one win of significance on the schedule (at Oklahoma), one that would be overshadowed by a loss at home to five-loss South Carolina. 

Oklahoma (+2.5) at Tennessee: The loser is out the CFP race. How’s that for a big November game?

Oklahoma QB John Mateer has completed one pass of 20 or more yards in the air over the past three games. The offense has shortened and bogged down, and much of it can be attributed to Mateer’s thumb injury — and the rest of the SEC adjusting and game-planning Mateer and new OU offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle.

Tennessee’s problem hasn’t been the offense; it’s as efficient as most in coach Josh Heupel’s five seasons. The defense, on the other hand, has been brutally bad. The Vols are last in the SEC in total defense, and are 15th out of 16 teams in scoring defense (30.2 ppg.).

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Kentucky (+11.5) at Auburn: Two weeks ago, Kentucky getting 12.5 points against a Texas offense that struggled to score points was as close to a lock as there was.

Now the Wildcats are getting 11.5 against an Auburn team that can’t score enough points to save its coach from unemployment. If Auburn can’t beat Kentucky, coach Hugh Freeze will be lucky to make it past Sunday before getting fired.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: SEC predictions Week 10: Conference keeps eating its own with CFP on line