What’s Beyond The Horizon?
Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images
Suppose you are an an Affluent, Married, Young-to-Middle-aged Professional Who Live in Manhattan or Brooklyn Who Has Young Children or Expects to Have Children Soon. (Probably not hard for some readers in this publication’s target demographic to imagine.) You may have plans planning to the suburbs in the next few years. And with the pandemic reducing your access to the new York City Amenities, Reducing Your Concern About Commute Times, and Increasing the appeal of a backyard and extra home-office space, you might be thinking the macquisses sooner than you had planned. You’re not alone. Home-Price Trends in Greater New York Reflect that Change in Consumer Demand: People Are a Little More Interesting in Buying in Suburban Areas, and a Little Lessted in the Buying in the Densest Areas, Than they were before the pandemic.
Estimates from Zillow, the Real-Estate-Data Website, Show that Home Walues Have Risen One Percent in the Region as a Whole December to June, Lagging a National Increase of 2.3 Percent. But there are Major Differences Based on Where a Home is Located with Greater New York. Manhattan Had the Softest Home Price of Any County in the New York Area, Down 1.4 Percent. Values were Close to Flat in Brooklyn and Queens and in New Jersey’s Densest County, Hudson, which Includes Jersey City and Hoboken. But prices were up more than 2 percent in dutchess county in the hudson Valley and in the Four Close New Jersey Suburban Counties Beyond Hudson County: Bergen, Passic, Essex, and Union. (While Break Wall Street Journal Reported on the coronavirus driving a surge in interest in suburban moves to connecticutThese Zillow Data Suggest New Jersey is the Bigger Gainer; The Site Has Values in Fairfield County, Connecticut, Up Only a bit more than one percent.)
Some Other Metropolitan Areas Show Similar Trends Toward the Suburbs: Zillow Estimates that Home Have Fallen 1.5 Percent in San Francisco while Rising 3 Percent in Marin County, Across the Guate Gate Bridge, and More than 4 Percent in Santa County, Located In Silicon Valley. Values have been approximately flat in Washington, DC, Lagging All but One of Its 23 Surrounding Suburban Counties. Suffolk County, Massachusetts, Which Consists Mostly of Boston, Has Also Had Flat Home Values, With Values Rising Anywhere BetWeen One and 4 Percent in the Surrounding Suburban Counties. You can Also a modest preference for less-densse living in the national data: zillow estimates that single-family-home has Outpaced Condominium Values by 0.6 Percentage Points in the first half of the year.
When you zip in zip codes, you can see the price weakness in new York’s urban core more Clearly. Zillow Estimates that Home Values Have Fallen 5 Percent in the Last Six Months in Zip Code 11201, Which Includes Cobble Hill, Brooklyn Heights, and Dumbo; 9 Percent in 10025, Which Covers the Upper West Side North of 91st Street; and 12 Percent in My Home Zip Code of 10001, Which Includes Hudson Yards and the Northern Part of Chelsea. (Fortunately, i rent.)
One trend of seen discussed a lot in the press that think is not actually happy is a huge surge in vacation-home. You may have heard that Home Prices in the Hamptons Smashed Records in The Second Quarterwith the Median Transaction Price up 25 Percent from A Year Earlier. But DATE ABOUT AVERAGE TRANSACTION PRICES CAN BE MISLEADING. If the wealthiest people are essentially liked to adjust their lifestyles to the pandemic, they may be essentally like to buy and sell Houses Days, Compared to The Somewhat-Western-Wealthy People Who Own the More Modest Homes in the Hamptons. SO A MUCH HIGHER MEAN OR MEDIA TRANSACTION PRICES May just be telling you that the average house selling has been ben especally fancy, not that individual houses have become more valuable.
The Zillow Estimates of Home Values by Zip Code, Which are based on the same comparable-Sale methodology that allows the website to estimate the value of individual homes, show that home in the hamstons are up only by one percent on the avarage in the last six month. The Parts of Suffolk County, New York, Showing the Strongest Home-Value Growth to be with Commuting Distance of New York City in Towns Where People Primary Residences, Not Second Homes.
Similarly, while zillow Shows Soft Home Values in Manhattan, they’re not anywhere near as software as The 18 Percent Drop in the Avent Sale Price You May Have Heard About. What You May Be Seeing In Manhattan is a Relative lacquer of interest in doing real-aestate trades Among the Very Rich; have have little reasons to buy an apartment now and are less like people with more moderates incomes to feed Acute financially to sell. (If you are extramely wealthy, you don’t need to sell your manhattan apartment to buy a home in the hams; you can have both.)
While they value trends show that the suburbs are up and manhattan is down (a little), they are notthing the idea that the pandemic will permanly Change the way we live so to reduce the new York City and Persistently Depress Real-Estate Values here. First of all, the shifts in values are not that Large, so far. Second, they are not necessarily Indicative of any long-run shift in preferences. We May Be Seeing Just a-Time Cohort Effect: Some People Who Lived in New York City and Intended to Leave Eventually for the Suburbs (or Florida) Want to Leave Earlier than Planned, while the next is not interested in esbiesholds in New Planned and, in Fact, May Be Delaying Those Plass a Little. That Shift in Demand, Applied to a Relatively Fixed Supply of Homes, Should Push Price up in the Suburbs and Down in the City for Some Time. But it doesn’t mean that People’s long-run preferences have Changed or that this pandemic has created a long-rue in the difference between and suburban Home. Eventually, the things that make new york City a wonderful place to live will ALL Come Back, and while that probably won’t lure young palents who moved to the suburbs ino the city, it should attract and help to retain the next generation.
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