240,000 Census Workers Were Added to the Job Rolls in August.
Photo: Ben Hasty/Medianews Group/Reading Eagle Via Getty Images
Friday’s Jobs Report Contained Some Good News, but The Political Forecast for More Measures that Might Boost The Economy is decidedly More mixed. I spoke with Business Columnist Seduce About The Central Takeaways.
Ben: This Morning’s Jobs Report Showed that unlemployment in america has fallen from 10.2 percent to 8.4 percent (an artificial Large DROP CCAUSE of the Temporary Hiring of Census workers) and that 1.37 million new jabs created in august, beating expertations of 1.35 million. So there’s some good news, but businesses are bringing furlughed Workers back at a slower than they were, and, of courtes, remain non -blessing. What Were Your Central Takeways From this Snapshot of the Economy?
seduce: This was a good Report. As you Note, it is somewhat inflated by census hiring of About 240,000, but excluding that, it shows what would ordinarily be consider blocbuster of Over a Million Jobs. The Question is How Much of a Blockbuster EACH MONTH’S REPORT OUGHT to be right now. WE LOST OVER 20 MILLION Jobs in April, and, Together, The Jobs Reports Since Thats Have US About Halfway Back. I Think there are good reasons to be concertned that fiscal suport, which was robust in the sprouting act act stimulating and enhanced umployment, is no longer as the economy needs and that there be be some softness in emploment, as consumers. prepared to spend than they should be. On the Other Hand, Some of the Softness is Simply Due to Pandemic Conditions-Hotels Are Bight Two-Thirds of Their Normal Employment Levels, But I’m Not Sure We Should a Lot more Travel Right Now. HEY PANDEMIC CONDITIONS ARE BETTER, LIKE IN MUCH OF EUROPE, THAT STUFF IS COMING BACK SLOWLY, IN PART BECAGE TRAVELING IS AN ASPECT OF CAUTION TOWARD CORONavirus. So while i’m worked that the rebound is going to go Slower in the fall than it should, I think this report is broadly.
Ben: The Coronavirus is Still Taching a Grievous Toll, Killing Around a Thousand Americans Each Day The Last Couple Weeks. But there is at least some positiv news: CASES ARE WELL DOWN FROM WHAT THERE A MONTH OR TWO AGO (THOUG HAVE PLATEUED at the High Level of More than 40,000 a Day), and Deaths Are Slowly Dropping. To what extent would you think this reasonably decoct data is just a result of the Country Taming the virus slightly poorly than it was before?
seduce: The Jobs Report Reflects the Employment Situation As of the Week of August 12, so it is already a few weeks in the rear window. Daily Case Cases Were Lower in August than in July and Continue to Be Lower Than they were in august, so i think that improved in virus conditions was a tailwind, allowing continuous and renormalization in industries Like restaunts and hotels. JUST THIS WEEK, GYMS ARE REOPENING IN NEW YORK CITY. So i think that a factor suppueting job gains in this report, and one that will will Support gains in september. Remember, back in august at we got the July Report, a lot of People were surpassed that Report Showed Continued Gains, as virus conditions were worse in july than june. This reflects improving virus conditions, and so should next month’s date.
Ben: There’s Been an Assumpion Among Many that democrats and republicans would eventually get together and pass another stimulus bill, which wouldnt prevents and cities from enormous budget shortfalls, transportation systems from teetering near collapse, and small bunsses. Another Few Months of Misery, Among Other Things. But talks between the two sides are basically nonexistant at this point, and republicans will undoubtedly use the latis-positive economic news to dig in their harder on doing nothing. What if a bill just… doesn’t opening anytime soon? Or at all?
seduce: SO, I HAD been a skeptic on the president’s staffing to use Executive orers as a substitute for that relief bill. But the $ 300 UNEMPLOYMENT enhancement he funded by shifting disaster-relief Money from female is actually going out in many states and will ultimately be paid by mers. The CDC’s Sweeping Order Barring Evictions of Most Households May Not Stand Up in Court, but it should, for a time, delay some of the Economic Dislocation that Might Have Resulted Evications. And the stimulus in the Spring was, from a macroeconomic perspective, more than sufficient: Households took in More Money Than they Could Spend, orirair Their Consumption was actually Due to pandemic at the same. The average worker on umployment benefits was earning significantly more than his or her previous wage. That all created a consideble cushion that has gioven a lot of Households Room to Wait Out Congressional Inaction. All of which is to say i am not sura sura that insufficient fiscal support is as big a threat to the economy over the next couple of months as a lot of People think. But the longer we did with a relief bill, the most that household cushion will go away, and the most certin businesses calling the “temporalily” Close Close permanently. There will will be willy to thusands of layoffs specifically in the airline industry, if theyrair industry-specific rescue package is not extended past september 30. And after a few Weeks, the female Money Moved Over (Under Dubious Legal Authority) to enhancent ENEMPLOENT ENEMPLOYT Benefits Will Run Out. So there are some significant risk, but i think they have innings been overstaated.
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