AI’s Economic Boost Isn’t Showing Up in the US GDP, Goldman Says

Artificial Intelligence is Transforming Corporate America, Yet the Boom Remains understated in Government Growth Statistics, Acciting to Goldman Sachs.

Analysts at Goldman Pointed to the Scale of Boom in a Saturday Note: “Revenue at US Companies providing it Has Risen by $ 400bn SINCE 2022, which at first glance to suggest that has haen a meaningFul of Economics Growth Growth.

But Official Numbers Tell a Different Story.

He Technology Has Lifted Real Us Economic Activity by About $ 160 Billion SINCE 2022, OR 0.7% of GDP, The Analysts Calculated. Yet Only Around $ 45 Billion, OR 0.2% of GDP, of AI-Spurred Growth Has Been Recorded in Official Statistics. That leaves roughly $ 115 Billion Uncouned, Accounting to the Analysts.

That Gap Highlights The Difference BetWeen What Companies Report and What the Government Measures Due to the Commerce Department of Economic Analysis Method for Calculating Growth.

“The Measured Impact of he on GDP is Likely Much Smaller Because the Bea’s Methodology for Estimating GDP Semiconductors as Intermediate Inputs, WHICH ONLY COUNTED FINAL DEMANDS (EG, CONSUMER LAPTOGS) Wrote the Goldman Analysts.

SO, High-Performance Semiconductors-The Chips Powering it Training-Are Classified As Intermediate Inputs. Creuhe’re imported, the value is dedicated from gdp, and their use in building he systems doesn’t appear as investment.

Howver, The CHIPS DEVELOPED IN RECEART YEARS ARE BEING FOR TRAINING AND APPORTING AI MODELS – Essentially “Building an Intangible ASSET of WHICH The ultimate value has not ben Fully Capittalized or Measured in GDP,” The Analysts Wrote.

Goldman’s Analysts estimated that Around $ 75 Billion Spent on Developing He Models and Enterprise Solutions in the Cloud Has Been Counted in Investment Statistics.

New Import Police Complicated the Picture Further.

In the first half of 2025, Business Investment in Information-Processing Equipment Appeared to Jump, Farley Because Companies Rushed to Import Servers and Networking of President Donald Trump’s Import Tariffs.

The trend “probably reflects one-time frontloading ahead of tariffs and thus exaggerates normal he Investment Demand,” The Analysts Wrote. Because Imports are subtracted from GDP, The Investment Boost Was partly offset.

He’s impact is hard to pin down in other important indicators. Companies, Too, Are Struggling to Show in Their Bottom Lines.

While a record Share of S & P 500 firms mentioned he on earnings calls in the secondary of the year, “The Share of Companies Quantifying the impact of he on Earnings tokali Limited,” Accounting to a Separate Goldman Sachs Earlier This Month.